Japan in a post-American
world
By JOHN HAFFNER(This
article, which fist appeared March 4, 2009, in the Huffington Post,
is reproduced here in Eyes on Japan by kind permission of the
author.)
Even before the cataclysmic events of the
past year, policy makers in Japan were engaged in a quiet but high stakes
debate about the country's future in the context of disquieting changes.
Japan's population is dropping, but the
country is not so keen on immigrants to counter the decline. Looking
beyond its borders, some of Japan's leaders have felt nostalgic for the
simple rules of the Cold War. Global instabilities after 9-11, concerns
about America's imperial overstretch and declining influence in Asia, and
shifts in the global balance of power have left Japan contending with an
increasingly volatile and complicated world. Relations between China and
Japan have stabilized over the past few years, but Japanese leaders still
wonder what kind of superpower China will become. And if the United States
faces conflicts between its dealings with Japan and with China down the
road, at what point will the Sino-American relationship take precedence?
Against this uncertain backdrop, the global
financial crisis has had two effects of great consequence for Japan's
deliberations on its future. First, it has accelerated changes in
geopolitical influence away from Japan's traditional source of security
and foreign policy, the United States, towards other, emerging centers of
power. Second, it has transformed Japan's sense of disquiet into one of
full-blown anxiety and crisis.
Although there is enough suffering to go around these days, Japan's
economy is especially hurting: with its domestic economy highly protected
from imports and therefore less productive, the country is heavily export
dependent for wealth creation. But its export markets have collapsed in
spectacular fashion, and it cannot stimulate domestic demand. Japan's GDP
is rapidly contracting, capital is flying out of the country, exports have
dropped almost by half from a year earlier, and its Nikkei stock index is
close to a 26-year low.
Japan's political leadership, meanwhile — already long seen as mediocre or incompetent by the Japanese public
— has
lost all credibility, both at home and abroad. In a recent article
describing Japan's (now resigned) trade minister Shoichi Nakagawa at a G7
press conference as "incoherent, floundering, sleepy and
confused," The
Economist went on to say that the minister's demeanor "typified
the country's economy and politics." The Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) — which has governed Japan since the 1950s (except for one brief
interruption in 1993) — may finally be thrown out of office later this
year. In a straightforward sense, an end to LDP hegemony is a good moment
for democracy in Japan. The challenge is that its main rival, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is plagued by infighting and a lack of
vision: in the absence of a comprehensive strategy, the DPJ may not be
able to deliver much more than the LDP has done.
Clearly, Japan is in a moment of great
consequence: whether one thinks of its population, its economy, its
political leadership, or its ruminations on evolving geopolitical
rivalries, the country has many important choices to make. So where should
Japan go from here? Is the country destined simply to become, as Christian
Caryl of Newsweek
puts it, "the Hamlet of Asia, endlessly fretting about its waning
world influence while failing to do much about it?" Does it have any
option other than to retire quietly into the setting sun? And when it
comes to Japan's triangulations with the United States and China, should
Japan simply hope to "hug
the US closer,"or should it cultivate a stance neither too hot
nor too cold towards the United States and China, like Goldilocks?
Or should it seek from now on to "stand
as a pole," in the phrase of Professor Terumasa Nakanishi of
Kyoto University?
Late last week Prime Minister Aso gave one
foolish answer. Emboldened, perhaps, by recent US-Japan meetings, the
Prime Minister needlessly antagonized China by resurrecting a dormant
dispute over uninhabited islands claimed by both China and Japan, and by
insisting that the islands are protected under the US-Japan security
alliance. At best, the gesture distracts from the problems Japan needs to
solve; at worst, it could lead to a stand-off and an escalation.
In our book Japan's Open Future: an
Agenda for Global Citizenship, my co-authors and I contend that if
Japan wishes to escape a future of decline and irrelevance, and if it
wants to take meaningful steps towards a more secure, contented and
prosperous future, it needs to think big. Japan really has only one
sustainable option: to become a more open, dynamic, conscientious,
engaged, globally integrated country. In our book we show why this is so,
and we offer a set of interconnected policy prescriptions for how Japan
could undertake this radical transformation. There are many things Japan
could do, but especially by moving beyond a rigid and inflexible
conception of its national identity, by opening up to trade and
immigration, by learning to communicate more effectively, including with
the English language as the global lingua franca, and by undertaking a
much more spirited commitment to global development and security, Japan
has the potential to make a profound contribution to domestic, regional,
and global challenges.
To pursue this path, however, Japan must
think beyond isolationism and the US security alliance. Japan must begin
to see itself as a global citizen and as an Asian country, and it must
walk the walk on both counts.
At a time when multilateralism is imperiled,
the United States would also benefit from such a radical shift in Japan's
posture: it would find an expanded, wealthy market for its exports, a more
secure Asian region, and a talented civil society capable of
constructively contributing to global issues. President Obama understands
that multilateralism is the only path forward for the world, and that its
importance is even greater in dark economic times. As a grand strategy for
Asia, therefore, President Obama should encourage Japan to pursue policies
leading to a peaceful and integrated Asian community, one rooted in
reasonably harmonious and dynamic relations between those (highly
complementary) leading economies, Japan and China.
Now more than ever, the United States needs
Asia to prosper, and Japan must play its part.
© John Haffner 2009 All rights reserved
This page last updated 2010-02-01
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